Interesting Articles

Markets faced a series of challenges in October but still surged to new highs. The US government was shut down for the month, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating the cost at $18 billion. The US regional banking sector experienced heightened turmoil as Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance share prices plunged on substantial loan impairments and fraud, drawing parallels to the Silicon Valley Bank collapse of 2023. Markets also whipsawed on developments in the US-China trade conflict, where Beijing tightened rare earth export restrictions and President Trump subsequently threatened an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports. Following this announcement on 10 October, the crypto market experienced the largest liquidation event in its history, wiping out over $19 billion across 1.6 million traders. Bitcoin fell sharply from $125 000 to a low of $102 000, most likely magnified by holders of perpetual futures being forced to liquidate. US equities fell 3.5%, but traditional safe havens rallied, including gold, US bonds, the US dollar and the Japanese yen. Read more

As we enter the third quarter of 2025, markets have continued to hit new highs despite rising geopolitical risks. Investors are confident that strong fiscal and monetary policy support will prevail, but market challenges remain significant. Read more

Attending the 2025 Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholders meeting in Omaha was, as always, an inspirational experience. This year the meeting provided a profound reinforcement of timeless principles and strategic foresight. For obvious reasons this may seem redundant, but it is a personal exercise that I hope you enjoy. Below I tried to summarise key takeaways from all the questions and conversations, focusing on those concepts that resonated most strongly with me. I thought it appropriate to include some quips and quotes as well. Read more

President Trump’s sweeping 2 April Liberation Day reciprocal tariffs triggered a global market rollercoaster and unprecedented backlash. The tariffs – ranging from 10% to 50% on most US trading partners, with some rates on China reaching as high as 125% – sparked immediate turmoil in global markets. Only 13 hours after the 9 April implementation date , Trump suspended tariffs on nearly all countries but China. During this period, a flat 10% tariff is being applied to most imports, while counter-retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods were hiked to 145% as the US-China trade war escalated. Read more

2024 was a pivotal year in global politics, characterised by significant electoral shifts across many nations as voters expressed their desire for alternatives to established political parties and leadership. The Financial Times reported that for the first time in over a century, every developed country’s governing party facing elections lost vote share, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction with the status quo. The Labour Party ended 14 years of Conservative Party governance in the United Kingdom and Republicans regained control of the White House in the United States (US). In South Africa, the African National Congress (ANC) lost its majority for the first time since apartheid. The Democratic Party in South Korea gained a majority and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party lost its majority in India. Germany faces an early election in February after the collapse of the governing coalition, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in January announced his intention to resign. Read more

Markets reacted predictably to the recent "red sweep" in the US elections, with US equities, the dollar and bond yields experiencing significant gains. In contrast, non-US equity markets and currencies faced challenges. The possibility of Donald Trump implementing corporate tax cuts and deregulation in his second term as US president is particularly advantageous for US equities. Deregulation is expected to stimulate entrepreneurship, increase labour productivity and lower inflation, while tax reductions could enhance corporate earnings and growth prospects. Conversely, Trump's proposed tariffs could adversely affect global markets, stunting growth. A reactionary trend to fiscal easing is likely to emerge globally, especially in China, as countries respond to tariffs, although they are unlikely to fully mitigate their impact. Consequently, our increased equity exposure is focused on US markets, leading to an overweight position in US equities relative to other developed and emerging markets. Both the US and China, as the world's largest economies, now have substantial capacity to enhance their economies through fiscal measures, creating an environment that favours equities over bonds due to anticipated robust economic growth and resurgence in inflation, prompting us to make a tactical shift in investments from bonds to equities. Read more

If I were presenting on the state of the global economy today, I would be calling for a four-alarm fire: I see a global crisis unfolding over the next few years, yes, financial in part, but this time around, so much more. A combination of long-simmering, long-ignored factors in a slew of mainly Western economies is coming to a head. Read more

The flight of foreign investors from both equity and bond holdings has reinforced this lack of diversity in capital markets. The data show that foreign holdings of JSE equities as a share of nonresidents’ holdings of domestic shares declined from about 40% in the middle of 2019 to its current 27.6%, representing a 31% decline in foreigners’ appetite for South African stocks. Read more

The data show that South Africa is an outlier in spending on social services and grants, allocating some 15% of GDP. Our social spending is higher than almost all countries in this sample, with the exception of a few African and Latin American nations. Much more importantly, however, government is also simultaneously a very poor allocator of revenue to investment spending. Read more

On Wednesday, 29 May, South Africans go to the polls for their seventh national election since democracy. As is usual in an election year, there has been busy debate and discussion around possible voting outcomes – almost as busy as the number of new parties on the ballot paper! In the graphic below I have tried to be a bit more scientific in my assessment of the key election question: What percentage of the national vote will go to the ANC? Read more